IMF Warns G20 Growth Set to Be Worst Since 2009 Crisis

Global Growth Outlook Hits a Low Point

The IMF has issued a sobering forecast for the G20 nations: medium-term growth is expected to slow to 2.9% by 2030, the weakest pace since the 2009 global financial crisis. Reuters
Advanced economies within the group are projected to grow at just 1.4%, while emerging markets may fare better with around 3.9%. Reuters
For 2025, growth among G20 nations is forecast at only 3.2%, down from 3.3% in 2024, and expected to slip to 3.0% in 2026. Reuters

Key Drivers of the Slowdown

Several structural and policy-related challenges underpin the weak outlook:

• Protectionism and trade uncertainty are rising, curbing the ability of global trade to drive growth. Reuters

• Aging populations in major advanced economies are shrinking the labour force and dampening potential productivity gains. Reuters

• Strained public finances and high debt levels limit countries’ ability to deploy fiscal stimulus or absorb shocks. Reuters

• Emerging markets are not immune: though their growth rate of ~3.9% is stronger, it is still modest in historical terms given the elevated expectations earlier this decade.

Implications for Investors and Policymakers

The forecast carries important lessons:

• Investors should temper expectations for broad-based rapid growth and focus more on differentiated opportunities, especially in markets with structural strengths.

• Policymakers face a dual challenge: boosting productivity and managing fiscal imbalances while contending with slower structural growth.

• The forecast highlights the continued importance of reform: trade liberalization, labour participation, innovation investments, and debt sustainability matter now more than ever.

Looking Ahead

While the growth figures appear sluggish, the IMF report also suggests some areas where brighter spots may emerge — including selected emerging economies, productivity-enhancing investments, and structural reforms. Turning the trajectory around will depend on timely policy action and global cooperation.

As we move through 2025 and beyond, the growth outlook remains fragile. Monitoring policy responses, trade dynamics and demographic shifts will be essential to understanding which countries buck the trend and which continue to lag.